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10 Golden Rules

10 Golden Rules for Stock Market Trading Success

Your stock trading rules are your money. When you follow your rules you make money. However if you break your own stock trading rules the most likely outcome is that you will lose money.

Once you have a reliable set of stock trading rules it is important to keep them in mind. Here is one discipline that can reap rewards. Read these rules before your day starts and also read the rules when your day ends.

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To Trade or Invest

The stodgy old world of stock market investing used to take place in the hallowed halls of dusty investment houses where buying stocks was viewed as a long term deal. You bought company stocks and held onto them for decades slowly earning dividends and appreciating value. Then came the 1980s and the exploding stock market and the introduction of traders. With the introduction of personal computers in the 1990s, anyone could suddenly become a trader and the numbers of people directly investing in the stock market blossomed. Now, with cable TV replacing the quiet expertise of patrician stoke brokers like Louis Rukeyser with manic hedge fund traders like Jim Cramer you could be forgiven for thinking that long term investment went out the window and short term money making was in.

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Capital Asset Pricing Model of Stock Investing (CAPM)
In 1990 Harry Markowitz, Merton Miller, and William Sharpe shared the first Nobel Prize in the very young area of financial economics. The Nobel committee recognized Harry Markowitz for developing portofolio theory, Miller for the theory of corporate finance, and Sharpe for the Capital Asset (stock market) Pricing Model also known as CAPM.


CAPM was the crowning acheivment of theoretical economists bent on proving that markets are efficient and work together mathematically with the precision and elegance of a Rolex watch. In the 1980s, researching financial economists began to notice a slew of empirical results that are not consistent with the view that stock market returns were determined in accordance with CAPM and stock market efficiency.
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Buy Deep In-The-Money Options

In times of high volatility, Buying deep in-the-money (ITM) options is a good way of implementing directional option trading strategies.


This is because high implied volatilities, will eventually begin to come back down to more normal volatility levels and when this happens, the at-the-money (ATM) and out-of-the-money (OTM) options are going to suffer.


Deep in-the-money (ITM) options, however will remain largely unaffected. Why you might ask? Well this is because deep ITM options have very little time value and it is the time value or extrinsic value of an option that is effected by rising or falling implied volatility.

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Big Oil Companies, Free Markets, Gas Prices
Here it is, plain and simple. In the U.S., the term "free market economy" is only a popular and useful term. The U. S. has a managed economy with significant free market influences. Free market forces need to be distinguished from the term "free market economy."
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Can The Stock Market Crash?

Of course the stock market can crash but not for the reasons most often given. Investors,traders and speculators perform a valuable service. They bear risks that others are unwilling or unable to assume. As long as the majority of the market participants are directly involved in buying and selling actual shares of stocks, the result is  beneficial to a free market economy. Without stock traders, the economy would collapse.

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Plunge Protection Team, Truth or Fiction?

Waiting for all of the evidence to land on the table sounds more prudent, but actually puts a trader at a serious disadvantage. Facts are not available fast enough to be valuable. In 1987 the Federal Reserve and others, on an emergency basis, intervened to stabilize  the stock market. The mythical Plunge Protection Team (PPT) was born. Since that time the  Plunge Protection Team  has been rumored to have supported the stock market on numerous occasions. Experienced traders frequently allude to bizarre trading patterns. The Plunge Protection Team is increasingly mentioned in the capacity of supporting stock prices on a continuing basis.

So, is the Plunge Protection Team fact or fiction? In order to justify further investigation it doesn't have to qualify as either. In the stock market suspicions count..

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Smart People In The Stock Market

The trend is your friend except in the end - James Quillian. 

The smartest people I know are surgeons, attorneys, pharmacists and mathematicians. Each of these individuals lost huge sums of money as a result of the last bear market. Thank goodness they all have enormous earning power, and are doing fine now concentrating on their life's work. Some have done o.k. in real estate lately. Most large amounts of money that end up being invested come from the hands of smart people. Hedge funds are full of money that was earned by smart people.

The financial markets would not work the way they do without smart people playing their role. When the news media herald the long awaited return of the individual investor, they are referring to the folks I just described. Stock market cycles are terrific instruments for transferring money from those who earned it to others with ambiguous identities. Asking where the money went after it is lost in the stock market is like asking, where did my lap go when I stood up?

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A Gift From Your Government
A gift from the Bush administration
 
What would happen if a discrete message was circulated? What if there was a silent understanding that price manipulation will be overlooked as long as the effect is to cause stocks to go higher? After all, who would mind?

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Random Selection of Stocks
Picking stocks at random is not the best method, but it is better than jost. jost stock picking methods end up producing results that fall shy of pure luck. Just to stay grounded, I do a few random studies from time to time and compare the results to the performance of various professionals. The random picks usually outperform professionally picked portfolios. The following is a typical random study.
study.

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The Magic of Not Believing
The Magic of Not Believing The human mind is like a tape recorder. Once ideas get planted in a person's mind, the individual, does not distinguish between natural discernment and notions which are artificially planted. jost people are so hopelessly infested with erroneous ideas and beliefs that they have virtually no chance, outside of dumb luck, at being successful investors.
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